Why the MTV Poll/Super Bowl Didn't Matter

i agree with you 100%, there was no need for everyone to get angry over 'no godzilla superbowl teaser', really i don't care if there isn't a trailer next week or even this month, all i want is a new poster or something new like updating the MUTO website.

This seems too well thought out for a message board post... I agree with all the above, well said.

I think your reasoning is a bit flawed here and since this is basically coming across as your way of saying "see I was right?" I'm goina tear into it.

With the Vampire Academy thing what more people were fighting for was merely a to make a statement.  People wanted Godzilla to win.  That's what it came down to. 

As for the Super Bowl, you're cherry picking examples here.  Let's look at the broader trends. 

During the Super Bowl not all the trailers were full length.  Several studios did something VERY smart and premiered a 30 second spot for a full trailer that could be visited at a website that was included in the commercial, so they paid less in advertising AND were able to give people a new look at the film.  What has this resulted in?  Captain America's trailer is now up to over 12 million views on youtube on one video.  the Spiderman 2 trailer is a little harder to analyze since Sony doesn' seem to have an official video... the Super Bowl spot itself has 200,000 views, while the longer trailer itself has several postings, including quite a few with over 200,000 respectively.  Transformers is up to over 2 million views on one video.  Noah isn't doing so hot but let's face it not many people are paying attention to that film to begin with plus it's trailer was during the first commercial break before the coin flip even happened when not many people were paying attention.  Same for the muppets.  Now while you are right in saying that the Godzilla trailer got more views in three days than most of these did, since then the official youtube view count is only up to 13 million views, which means only a 3-5 million view increase in the two months since it's release. 

Now I'm not trying to put down Godzilla don't take this as me saying that.  However, you can't honestly say that a Superbowl spot, especially one showcasing Godzilla himself and/or a Muto, wouldn't have lead to a significant amount of increased attention. 

Now, part of everything said above can partially be chocked up to when the footage aired obviously.  The trailers that didn't do as well were, in general, aired in the second half of a football game that, as we all know, sucked.  You can't honestly say though that having a Superbowl trailer wouldn't have helped the film, nor can you say that having one would have hurt it because we don't know.  However, considering how many people are already excited for this film, it probably would have drawn more views, not to mention it woud have still gotten the movie out to about a 100 million more people had it been aired in the first half of the game. 

Point is, it still could have been done and it still could have helped the film.  Just because Star Trek regretted doing it doesn't constitute evidence that a Super Bowl trailer is a waste of money, especially since JJ Abrams has said recently that his biggest regret about the film wasn't making it apparent that the villain was Kahn, which promoting could have actually increased ticket sales simply for the name recognition. 

As for Vampire Academy, winning a competition couldn't have hurt Godzilla, especially since how hard we fought for it got it's name out there more, so who cares if VA only has made a million or two bucks... any sales help and any increase in name recognition helps, especially when it's free.

Linkman,

You're free to examine it how you want, but I can claim you're equally guilty, if not more so, of "cherry picking." Here's some to further support my claim:

You're right that some (but not all) trailers aired condensed versions of what was later shown on youtube, but that didn't help matters. Trandformers: Age of Extinction had no extended trailer and still beat out Captain America 2 by 2-3 million views at the 6 day mark.

Need for Speed had an extended trailer as well as a 30 second Super Bowl spot, but was still beaten out by Maleficant (which was a trailer released over the weekend) and A Million Ways to Die in the West, which was a recently released red band trailer. 

Most promoted channels had The Amazing Spider-Man 2 trailers in the thousands, marking it to around $3 million at the 5-6 day mark.

You already mentioned Noah, but in the tradition of "cherry picking" as you call it, you omitted it to support your argument. (Despite the fact it's a high profile film by an acclaimed director and A-list cast.)

I'm not saying a Super Bowl spot would not have raised awareness to Godzilla, but I am saying there's not much evidence to support it. Especially when a 30 second Transformers spot out paces the advertised extended trailers.

But lets not forget the Super Bowl ads that do not showcase films. The "Villian Jaguar" spot, featuring Mark Strong, Tom Hiddleston and Ben Kingsley, had 8 million views Sunday night before midnight. Transformers: Age of Extinction, had not yet broke 1 million views before midnight Sunday night. (And that's the movie spot that's done the best.) You can check the Hollywood Reporter to back me up as well.

The fact is these longer, non-film ads are more bankable and more popular. Sports shows, before and after the Super Bowl, would talk about Super Bowl ads and typically condemn the movie spots. One in particular said, and I quote, "It's not a super bowl spot. It's a movie trailer." And dismissed them from being included as a favorite.

It still could've been done yes. And you're right it still could have helped the film, but that's still admitting it as a possibility and not a fact. Which it is not.

As for Paramount and Star Trek. It does not outright say they lost money from the Super Bowl spot, but to make such a claim suggests analysts and other executives didn't think it was worth the money either. Notice Paramount didn't have an ad in the Super Bowl this year.

Meanwhile, winning the MTV competition would not have hurt Godzilla, but recongnition and free help only matters if its productive. The MTV poll was not. It had no bearing on helping Vampire Academy and likely made less of an impact than other superfluous internet polls such as Crave Online's trailer polls from last December. The Lego Movie had almost no presense in that poll and tore Vampire Academy to shreds at the boxoffice.

Shit I just did a discussion about Vampire Acedemy's rating but didnt see this one, sorry about that lol

Yeah, this movie has to be VERY cost efficient with its marketing if it's going to be successful. As a general rule of thumb, a movie has to make 1.5x its production budget to break even. It usually has to make 2x its production budget to warrant a sequel (there are exceptions, but that's a decent guideline)

Godzilla 2014 in particular, will probably have to make slightly more than the 2x mark to get a sequel simply because TOHO will be getting a huge slice of the Japanese International profits, combined with Godzilla only being able to demand a 90%-75% theater cut for ONE WEEK of it's release in the U.S. (The X-Men movie will probably leverage down Legendary's cut on Godzilla to 66%-50% after that)

Long story short, even with merchandise and DVD sales to offset a weaker theater cut, Godzilla really can't afford to splurge on marketing if it's going to make money. Standard marketing budget formula, says that Godzilla has a reasonable marketing budget of $40-$60 million total if the production budget for the film is $160 million.

They can't go off and spend 10% of that on a Super Bowl ad. They just can't. If this movie was a surefire slam dunk, like The Hobbit, of the Phantom Menace (before everyone knew it was crap)...sure. But this movie is on the borderline of being profitable, so the marketing can't be lavish. 

I mean, they NEED to market this movie. It won't make money without marketing. But it can't be risky or expensive marketing. Super Bowl marketing is risky, and should only be done by movies who can afford the loss if it doesn't pay off. Godzilla simply isn't that movie. It must be marketed through more sure-fire and cheaper strategies.

Thanks for clarifying this for people-- lets just hope they read it.

But, the marketing strategy for this film is done on a small scale on purpose. People don't realize that when a film is risky like Godzilla (particularly after Pacific Rim flopped domestically) that secrecy builds hype a lot faster than blatant advertisement.

People walk into Godzilla with pre-conceived notions of camp and zaniness, keeping the trailers toned down and on the DL adds an air of mystery to it-- notice how the actors were the main focus of the trailer, this is marketing to get asses in seats. They want to display the films 'selling power' to the masses. Don't come see this movie because of a giant monster, see it because that guy from Breaking Bad is in it, hey girls, come see it cuz that hottie from kickass is in it-- that is literally the marketing strategy for many films.

When casting transformers, they specifically looking for 'youth appeal' with Shia and Megan Fox, two actors that in my opinion can barely act their way out of a paper bag-- and they are both criticised heavily for it-- but they sold the film to the masses and you'll never convince me that Americans were in a hurry to see a movie about talking robots-- but I'm getting off subject.

I don't expect a media blitz for this film, news is going to be slow and its going to be deliberate-- if a second trailer happens I don't expect it to show much in the way of new footage. I personally feel the BIGGEST update we are going to get and this is a  longshot is from Toy Fair here in a week or so, as many toy companies will be displaying their products for this year.

On this I'm almost a 100% confident we'll be seeing Godzilla and possibly MUTO toys, the reason for this being that Toy Fair is about showing upcoming products and since the new film is releasing THIS  year, I'm going to put my chips on the fact we'll be seeing toys and we'll probably be seeing toys before trailers.

So my feelings on this kind of advertising? I personally can't stand it. I like to have a broader picture of what I'm going to see before I see it, some people hate it, I love it-- take it as you will it is just how I operate. 

Can't really do anything but say I agree with the above two posts here.

Madison,

I've always heard a movie must earn back 2x its budgets due to the 50% theater costs. Where does this 1.5x factor in? Or is it a matter of time?

@GMan2887

I'll open by saying I don't work in the movie industry, and am definitely not an expert. I draw most of these conclusions and statistics from news articles and box office performance reports I've read. So basically, I do apologize if any of this info is wrong, although I am confident that it is correct. 

That being said, my understanding  is that the 1.5x vs 2x number varies from movie to movie. The 1.5x is much more relevant for big budget blockbuster style movies.

The 1.5x number comes from marketing costs, which are not included when talking about a movie's production budget. For most movies, the amount the studio spends on marketing is about 50% of the production budget. The marketing budget ratio is fairly consistent from film to film. 

Theater costs however, vary widely from movie to movie. Big budget blockbusters can usually negotiate huge cuts, like 100%-75% of ticket sales for the first 2-4 weeks. It only goes down to 50% after the movie has made most of it's money. The Phantom Menace for example, negotiated a 100% for 8 weeks or something like that. So the theater cost for blockbusters is marginal. Even then, blockbusters usually have strong merchandise and DVD sales which usually make up for what little theater costs they did have. 

As a side note: This is why Theaters charge so much for concessions. They have to make a buck somehow, and it actually isn't on the movies. 

Smaller, low budget flicks, that don't have merchandise to sell, usually don't get to negotiate those huge theater cuts. They have take what they can get. So for a $20-$60 million movie, yeah it probably does have to 2x it's production budget to break even, and greater than that to warrant a sequel. While a movie like the Avengers definitely only needed the 1.5x number to break even.

Godzilla 2014 specifically, is likely caught somewhere between this 1.5x and 2x number, as per my analysis on my above post. It has merchandise, and a blockbuster budget. But Toho is taking a significant cut of the International Box Office, and Godzilla has a super competitive release date, so it's Theater Cost is going to be higher than if it released on a weaker weekend.

I hope that clarifies some of my analysis and information. 

@MADISON so toho is going to take the earning from europe, south america, africa and the rest of asia or do you not think they count as part of the international box office, toho is only going to get the cut of the money off the japanese release because that is the ONLY place they will distribute the movie, warner bros is distributing the movie to everywhere else including europe and the rest of asia , so no toho is not taking a significant cut off the international box office.

You're right in that TOHO is only taking a cut from Japan. 

But I do believe Japan is a SIGNIFICANT portion of the International Box Office.

The film is probably going to be more popular in Japan than in any other market in the world if you're looking at per capita viewership.I mean, there is no way to know for certain, but based on how much previous TOHO productions have made, even when not released in the U.S., I would say Japanese sales are going equal somewhere around the $30 million mark, which could wind up being 10%-15% of the total International take. 

i would say 4-7%, japan has a high population but compared to the rest of asia (india especially), europe south america and the middle east, it is small and godzilla is known and popular there as well. just because godzilla is very popular in japan doesn't really mean they are going to be 10% of the international box office (10% out of all the countires in the world is too big).

I mean, I just respectfully disagree. 

If you look at the Box Office results of most Godzilla films in the Millenium Series, they almost all took in $10-$20 million. And that's only looking at the films JUST released in Japan theatrically. 

Having been on a 10 year hiatus, and being done with big budget American effects, that's where I'm guessing the Japanese $30 million number, which is a completely reasonable guess.

Assuming Godzilla pulls in $200-$300 million TOTAL from the International market (which is also reasonable to assume) the Japanese take of that is 10%-15% if Japan's take is $30 mil and you do basic math.

For it it to be around the percentage you're talking about, Godzilla 2014 would need to grab $400-$600 million from the International market alone.That's just niavely optimistic in my opinion. For the most part only the really popular slam dunk films like the Superhero sequels and stuff like the Hobbit pull in those numbers.

I mean, if I can't persuade you, I can't persuade you, but I think if you're looking at this objectively, I think all the numbers I mention here are ballpark accurate. Meaning Japan is a significant share of where this movie is going to make its money. 

you make a fair point and have convinced me slightly, sorry for being aggresive i thought you were saying that jpan is the big one in the international box office and other international audiences were small, and took offence because i am from the uk.

Alright, most of the movies I've helped market have given a 50% cut to theaters, even the higher profile ones, but I've not been a part of something as big as Godzilla or Transformers, etc... So I could be misinformed due to the various films I've been a part of.

Still, I imagine Godzilla will have to double its budget in order to be profitable for this round since three studios are involved.

Pacific Rim just barely made over double its budget. So the profit margin for that film was small from the $411 million worldwide draw. I don't think it would be out of line to believe Godzilla will do slightly better due to name recognition. If the budget really is $160 I'll be holding my breath for celebration once its made well over $320 million world wide. We'll see.

On a slightly differen't topic I do wonder if Japan will be a significant player in Godzilla's boxoffice. The country is pretty much done with tokustatsu and daikiaju. Pacific Rim was not a hit over there either, but it was able to pull $14.5 million into the pool. I'm actually hoping that this will be released in China more as they tend to make the biggest difference. Yet, I have not clue whether or not Godzilla is one of the North American movies selected to run in China this year.

Yeah China could make a significant difference of the film's prospects. It's apparently one of the largest film markets in the world (not surprising, but not something most people think about....including myself)

I was reading up on it earlier today, and apparently only 34 foreign films total get selected to play in China each year. Godzilla IS scheduled to release in Hong Kong already, but we won't know about a wide China release date until likely April or June.

In Godzilla's favor, they strongly prefer releasing films which can be shown in IMAX and 3D, since China has the second largest number of IMAX screens of any country in the world. 

On the downside: China's censors are pretty strict about not including movies that have any political statements, anti-Chinese sentiments, or pro-American ones. Basically, they only like movies which have basically no modern geo-political message whatsoever (like The Hobbit), or movies where the message is China positive, like Gravity, where Sandra Bullock takes refuge in a Chinese station.

I mean, it really depends on how the movie portrays Japan, the American military, and how heavy handed it's nuclear weapons/environmentalist messages may be, but most likely, if the movie glamorizes the U.S. military or talks about global warming too much China might nyx the film. 

I dunno, it's an interesting Box-Office X-Factor, and it will be very interesting to see what happens. China gave various American films anywhere from a $35-$150 million bump in 2013, which is actually a big deal any way you slice it. 

Here's hoping that China picks up Godzilla! :-)